The ARC That Should Have Been, part five: Crestwood and the townships

Crestwood Secondary is another mid-sixties institution built to accomodate the baby-boom generation and suburban sprawl. Located just west of Brealey Drive on Sherbrooke, the school, along with its elementary neighbour James Strath, is technically outside the city limits. One reason for this location was the easily available space, and another was to service the townships surrounding Peterborough to the south and south-west. Crestwood hosts graduates of James Strath, Kawartha Heights, North Cavan on County Road 10, Millbrook/South Cavan in Millbrook, and South Monaghan in Bailieboro.

James Strath serves students from the ex-urban areas immediately west of the city limits and also students from the sprawling subdivisions of Monaghan Ward west of Wallis Drive. The massive JK-8 school has enough students for three full classes per grade and seems stable at about 95% capacity. The residential development in the Ravenwood and Jackson Creek areas ensures that that demand for its services isn't going to fall in the near future.

James Strath also provides intermediate level education for graduates from Kawartha Heights, a JK-6 school located on Kawartha Heights Boulevard just north of Lansdowne. In addition to students in its subdivision, Kawartha Heights also serves those living south of Lansdowne in the Sir Sandford Fleming College area. The enrolment trend at Kawartha Heights is slightly downward, possibly reflecting to some extent the increasing popularity of French Immersion programs requiring students to leave the neighbourhood. As the chart below shows, however, it remains at an acceptable 80%, with enough students for about 1.5 classes per grade. 

	cap.	KPR projections
		2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	appr.	per grade	classes
Crestwood	933	892	908	884	95%	205
Kawartha Heights (JK-6)	282	238	233	225	80%	28	1.5
James Strath (JK-8) *	644	625	595	614	95%	55	3
North Cavan (JK-6)	150	145	128	125	85%	16	1
Millbrook/S.Cavan (JK-8) *	337	321	322	309	90%	28	1.5
South Monaghan (JK-8)	204	136	116	107	55%	11	0.5
total elementary	1617	1465	1394	1380	85%	138	7
"half-total"	820	730	700	690

The chart indicates that James Strath and Kawartha Heights between them provide about two-thirds of a total Crestwood population that has been only slightly declining in numbers over the years. The rest of the Crestwood students graduate directly from Millbrook/South Cavan, which is in turn fed by the tiny North Cavan, and from South Monaghan.

Our Trustee allocation chart tells us that the number of tax-payers in Cavan-Monaghan township increased only marginally between 2006 and 2010, while that of Otonabee-South Monaghan actually decreased by about half a percent per year. The chart above shows a corresponding steady drop in enrolment figures for all three rural schools. Given that the Ontario trend is toward higher population density in cities and lower density in rural areas, it’s not likely that this enrolment pattern is going to reverse any time soon, particularly in South Monaghan.

This year, South Monaghan’s enrolment has dropped to 107, or 55% of capacity, only enough for half a class per grade. KPR planners have noticed the trend, and in their 2010 accommodation report outlined the possibility of closing South Monaghan Public School and busing Bailieboro-area students up to Millbrook, North Shore in Keene, or even to Roger Neilson in Peterborough.

The situation at North Cavan and Millbrook is better. Although it’s unlikely that enrolment will increase, the current levels, at 85% and 90% respectively, are perfectly acceptable.

The “half-total” capacity of the five elementary schools is 820, about 100 less than Crestwood’s capacity – a ratio not quite as perfect as that of PCVS, but better than that at Adam Scott. Because Crestwood wasn’t part of the actual accommodation review, we don’t have estimated enrolment numbers for the future. However, projecting the “half-total” for 2009-10 ahead to 2014-15, we might expect about 730 students at Crestwood that year, about 78% of its capacity. This would be a significant drop from its current 95% level, but still acceptable. Moreover, we might expect enrolment at James Strath to be bolstered by new residential development around Parkhill west, which could keep enrolment at Crestwood up above 80%. 

As the Crestwood building is in reasonable shape, and four of its five feeder schools project to be reasonably well-attended in coming years, there’s no reason to make it the subject of an accommodation review.

However, South Monaghan will likely continue to be problematic. How important is the school to the people of Bailieboro? Do they want their kids sent up to Keene? What kind of condition is the building in? Is there any possibility of finding a community partner for the school space? These are questions that need to be answered by an accommodation review.

In conclusion, although the Crestwood network as a whole appears stable, we’ll name South Monaghan as the first school we’ve found that may need to be subject to an accommodation review.

In the next post, we’ll turn our attention to south-central Peterborough and the network of schools centered on Kenner Collegiate.